For what appears to be the third season in a row, Nebraska will be looking for their starting QB in the transfer portal. A sad state of affairs and development has been going on at that position in Lincoln. After all, the guy that started a majority of our games at that position in 2023 wasn’t even in QB meetings until this year. Crazy to think about.
Matt Rhule made headlines Wednesday when he came with this quote:
That was met with mixed emotions… some people thought that was a recruiting pitch by him saying how much we are willing to pay. But in my opinion, that just gets us in the same ballpark as every other Power 5 team that is looking if this tweet is true:
So if that was what he was doing, probably didn’t work all that much. In my opinion, what I believe Rhule was doing was 1) letting the public know just how much a proven guy would cost and 2) setting the stage for us as fans to not think we are going to just go out and have a blank check for a QB.
In a perfect world, i’m quite certain Rhule wants to have a guy he developed be his QB and be able to sprinkle that type of NIL money to retain guys and reward them for their play while in Lincoln. And then have 2-3 guys that are being developed behind him ready to step in. But since we aren’t in that situation again this year, let’s just take a look at the QB transfer portal.
The Tiers:
First, I think it’s important to know what the different levels of transfer QBs there are out there.
Top-Shelf: The top shelf guys are ones that are current starters at Power 5 programs and having success. Think of a guy like Caleb Williams at USC who followed his coach from Oklahoma.
Now, that’s from a couple years ago, and the On3 valuations are pretty much garbage, but if you want a Heisman candidate FBS player at the QB position you can bet your ass the number has a 2 in front of it.
Second-Tier Backup: These are the guys that lost their jobs but have starting experience at Power 5 programs. Essentially, you are able to gauge a bit of what they can do since they have film against competition you are asking them to go against. Where a fanbase can get on board because they at least had some success at a Power 5 job, but also should have some hesitation as it’s not a slam dunk. After all, they are getting ran out from their current team for someone else. Casey Thompson is a great example of this.
Second Tier: I wasn’t sure if I should put this one on top of ‘second tier backup’ or underneath it. But let’s just label those two 2A and 2B, because they are equal crapshoots. This tier is for the guy that has tore it up at lower levels like Go5 or FCS and while you think the skillset is there, you are taking a risk because he hasn’t played Power 5 competition frequently. Good examples of this are Tanner Mordecai for Wisconsin (via SMU) or Collin Schlee for UCLA (via Kent State), who both basically were mediocre at best for their programs. But you also have a guy like Shadeur Sanders. However, that one has an asterisk since I think he was a Power 5 guy that just followed his dad, and his dad was going to make him great no matter what. But you get where i’m at with this.
Developmental: This tier is for the guys in the portal that are just looking for a change of scenery either due to being recruited over, new coach, etc. A good example of this for us is Chubba Purdy. Purdy was told Thompson was the starting QB and he would compete for the starting job after Thompson was gone. These guys don’t come in expecting to start right away and come substantially cheaper. A name being thrown around is Lincoln Kleinholz who is now at Ohio State but originally from South Dakota. The offer to LK out of high school to sign with the Buckeyes was between 500k-1 million dollars. You can probably get him to Lincoln for much much less.
What is Nebraska going to look for?
This is what will be interesting. If you get a top-shelf guy and pay him the 1-2 million Rhule has quoted, you are losing Sims and Chubba for sure (I think Sims is gone either way). But you also risk HH transferring as well, leaving you only this transfer and Kaelin coming in, then walk-ons.
What I would actually do if I were Rhule to try and keep some sanity in the lockerroom and not be too locked into one guy, is go after a second-tier guy that has had some success at a lower level and tell him he can come in and compete, and then grab a developmental guy like LK (mentioned earlier), Noah Walters from North Alabama (originally from Lincoln East), or Zane Flores from Oklahoma State (originally from Gretna).
What is interesting, is if a guy like Walters will have suitors promising starting time. Will the kid from New Hampshire or Holy Cross (we will get into them later) have that promised? That’s the issue. Like it or not… Sims and Thompson were both promised starting roles here. Thompson left when he wasn’t guaranteed it for 2023. Martinez went to KState because he was guaranteed the starting job. Thompson ended up at FAU because he was guaranteed the starting job.
What kind of QB can Nebraska get if they DON’T do that? I wonder how quickly the talent falls off the cliff? So let’s take a look…
Last Year:
Let’s first start out with some of the guys i’ve seen as “can’t miss” candidates on message boards disgusts me. But as we mentioned in the earlier segments, you really have no idea what you are getting unless you find a proven starter with success from Power 5. Let’s see what last years “top 10 transfer QBs” (according to 247) did this year:
1) Sam Hartman – Was a stud at Wake Forest and continued that at Notre Dame, top-tier
2) Devin Leary – Was a stud at NC State and continued that at Kentucky, top-tier
3) Hudson Card – Didn’t play much at Texas, average at Purdue, second-tier
4) Shedeur Sanders – well documented
5) Walker Howard – didn’t play at LSU and ended up not playing at Ole Miss, developmental
6) Brennan Armstrong – Up and down at Virginia then average at NC State, second-tier
7) Tanner Mordecai – Was lights out at SMU (but did not play at OU prior), struggled at Wisky
8) DJ Uigaleilei – Started and played decent for Clemson, played well at Oregon State, top-tier
9) Colin Schlee – Played pretty well at Kent State, didn’t play at UCLA, second-tier
10) Luke Altmeyer – Didn’t play at Ole MIss, played decent for Illinois, second-tier
So as you can see, unless you are grabbing just some stud starter, there’s not really a “sure fire” portal guy. I’ve been seeing that phrase thrown around a lot with guys due to their recruiting rankings, but people failing to acknowledge they haven’t even played college ball yet. Many people forget that On3 had Henrich Haarberg rated a four star prospect and the 19th best QB in the entire country.
So let’s take a look at what is currently in the portal, which doesn’t officially open for non grad transfer players until Monday, so there will be even more soon. Here is the current top 10 from 247 sports:
1)Dante Moore – This being the #1 guy is kind of funny to me, in conference play he threw 4 TDs and 8 INTs. Former five star player thought I suppose?
2) Will Howard – Starter for Kansas State but they are making way for their freshman
3) Tyler Van Dyke – Played pretty well for Miami for 3 seasons
4) Will Rogers – Extremely impressive stats at Mississippi State
5) DJ Uiageleilei – Probably following his coach to Michigan State
6) Max Brosmer – A stud at the FCS level, do you want a one year guy that would move up a level?
7) Greyson McCall – People love this kid, but if we have a Satterfield offense I would set the over/under on picks against Iowa to 4.5. He is Jeff Sims 2.0, one read and then tuck & run. Mickey Mouse shit. We don’t need another one of those.
8) Brendan Sorsby – Had a rough game his last outing against Purdue but other than that, solid for a RS Freshman
9) Matthew Sluka – Tore it up at an FCS school and is just as deadly running as he is throwing. Can it translate to Power 5?
10) Tyler Shough – No thanks and him being in the top 10 concerns me
There is just no sure guy there, and if there is you have some high caliber schools that are going to go all in on them.
If I were Rhule:
If I was the head man, and I do think my philosophy mirrors his a little bit, I would go after a small school starter. Let the big dawgs battle it out for 2 million dollar deals of some of the guys mentioned earlier. Keep in mind, this list doesn’t even have guys like Cam Ward on it yet, who above we talked about his seven figure offers already.
But the problem with what I think Rhule wants to do and what I want to do, is you have to gauge what is being offered to guys like Sluka and Brosmer. Are Power 5 teams guaranteeing starting spots to them? The answer is probably yes. But if you are Rhule, with Purdy having surgery, you can tell them they are running with the 1s first practice of the spring, while Purdy sits and Kaelin starts to get his feet wet. You could also take a look at the kid from Idaho, but in that situation you are waiting a bit longer as they are in the playoffs.
From there, you have to grab another Chubba Purdy type guy. Can you convince Klienholz, Walters, Flores, or some other highly rated guy that just doesn’t like where he is to come in and wait his turn here and duke it out with Kaelin? If so, that gives you Purdy, (insert starter at some FCS school), Kaelin, and a developmental transfer in your QB room. I think that at least gives you a better floor than what you had this year.
Summary:
It will be crazy to see how this plays out. But the bottom line is, Rhule just can’t run it back with the same QB room. So as much as he doesn’t want to do NIL for guys who haven’t done anything here, QB is the one spot you have to make an exception.
What caliber of player we get will give everyone a good indication of not only how Rhule wants to handle his locker room, roster building, and NIL money… but also how much we have to spend.
I’m actually completely fine with him getting another one year band-aid due to what I witnessed from Haarberg, Sims, and Purdy this year (though Purdy at least has some promise, I just can’t let him be given the keys right now). There can be that one year guy in 2024 if there is 2 or 3 guys developing behind him that you are confident enough to be your starter in 2025. You absolutely can not have 2025 be the 4th year in a row where a first-year player to your program is starting game 1 for you at the most important position on the field.
Bonus:
Had someone tell me there was a healthy debate how we are a top 10 NIL program at the message board I was kicked off of. If anyone is currently trying to tell you that, please take away all of their credibility. It’s not hard to come up with 15 programs that publicly are blowing us out of the water on that.
For those of you that want to read more, I dove into our NIL situation early in the process with these articles: