Those comments really get me pumped for this year as it seems we really have things coming together. Oh, those are from previous years? They seem like the exact same thing i’m hearing for 2021? I’m not trying to be a dick with those tweets, but the internet is littered with them. Every year I tell myself “it’s just feels a little different.” “We have more talent they just aren’t experienced, different feel, we are bigger this year, etc.” Again for 2021, we are hearing the exact same things and i’m not sure if it’s just a copy and pasted tweet from previous seasons, or if they are genuine.
It’s actually one of the reasons I loved how brisk Frost was this week at his presser. Every year we’ve told you how great all these things you are asking us are, and every year it’s been wrong. At some point maybe we just aren’t great at evaluating our practice? I’m not saying that definitively, i’m just saying show me on the field now. I think Frost is thinking the same thing… “Nothing I say matters.” It makes it really tough to know what we can count on, and what we can’t, and to make a season prediction/preview. But why not do it anyway??? Let’s take a look at the season preview and try to decipher what’s real and what isn’t.
I’m seeing all sorts of national sports writers say that 6-6 and a bowl game is a “really good season for Nebraska” and it really pains me. This is not anywhere close to where I thought we would be in year 4 after I heard who we hired and the press conference that followed back in December of 2017. I have no idea how we went this far off the rails, but imagine if when we fired Riley, Moos said “we are going to get someone in here that will get us to a bowl in year 4.” We all would have lost our minds. But that’s the reality of where we are right now. According to the preseason FPI on ESPN, we are the favorite to win 5 games on our schedule:
http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi/_/id/158/nebraska-cornhuskers
That takes us to 5-7, but that includes Northwestern as a probable win. Ugh… not sure I count them as probable. However, that counts Michigan State as a probable loss. Hmmm… bowl game may mean we need to beat Sparty I would think, maybe? I mean, how many times before a season have we heard “Nebraska should be 8-1 heading to Wisconsin” or this year us coming with “should only have one loss to Oklahoma before playing (insert team)”. At what point do we need to understand games against Minnesota and Northwestern, even games against teams like Illinois and Purdue aren’t gimmies anymore. It’s kind of tough for me to chalk up wins against Illinois who beat us last year, or a Mel Tucker coached team who beat us in his first year at Colorado, or Northwestern who everyone always seems to think is beneath us but they always seem to put us in our place.
I also hear a lot about the “one score losses” and if we just win some of those everything is fine. But what if we take away our one score wins? That means we are 1-7 last year, and 3-9 in 2019. It’s not like we aren’t winning close games as well as losing some (i’m aware we have more one score losses). I’m not sure what the measure should be for good or bad here. As an example, Minnesota was a one score loss last year and they had no business being on the same field as us, they had 20+ kids out with Covid, yet we still couldn’t beat them. Are we counting Minnesota as a one score loss we should feel good about? Tough for me to get there considering we should have routed them by 21 with the situation that weekend.
Enough of that though, let’s start with a reason to be optimistic this year… the defense. We return 10 defensive starters, only losing cornerback Dicaprio Bootle. With that, everyone is a year older and has been in the system that much longer. Defensive Coordinator Erik Chinander has taken this team from 94th in scoring defense in 2018, to 61st in 2019, to 64th in 2020. While I try not to dive too deep into those, I do feel like we were a bit better in 2020 than 2019, as we didn’t get non-conference games like we did in 2019 to help our stats, but on the surface we appear to be in a much better situation defensively than last year both in terms of depth and in terms of talent. That is the only stat that matters, how much you let your opponent score, and we are getting better and better at that. We are as deep as we’ve been in a long time at DE, ILB, and DB. If we can find a backup NG and an OLB opposite Domann to step up, things could get real nasty on that defensive side of the ball.
But one thing that does scare me is the fact that defenses start faster than offenses typically, whether that’s spring ball or fall camp and even into the season. Timing is not as big of a deal to defenses, so they can usually get off and running while the offense comes around. Nebraska was holding off campus practices and had 90% of the team here all summer working out while teams like Northwestern and Iowa sent their kids home. Was how well we did defensively in 2020 a mirage because our defense was ready to roll and practicing, and other teams basically sent their kids home and had to get the offense ready in a month with no spring practice or summer? I am leaning towards no, but it is definitely something i’m going to keep an eye on. It was a factor in our success for 2020, but how much?
For as good as our defense was, there were some stats that struck me as surprising for the 2020 season. Nebraska was 123rd in the country in turnover margin, and while i’d put most of that on the offense (109th in turnovers lost), we only ranked 104th in turnovers gained. For a team that emphasizes turnovers every day in practice, we absolutely have to get better at that. Compare that to 2019 where our turnover margin had us ranked 64th in the country, and our defense was 26th in takeaways per game. I’m not sure I knew we were that bad there comparatively season over season. For some reason, we dropped off a cliff in 2020, but a big part of that is probably due to losing 2 draft picks along the lines with the Davis twins and losing some ability to get pressure on the quarterback. And when you look at us losing 30 spots in the national rankings for “Sacks per Game”, that needs to be a massive point of emphasis, and we need one if not two guys to step up to get up field and help create some pressure and frantic throws or fumbles. Otherwise, we are probably stuck with another average to below average season. Takeaways have to get better.
So that takes us to our offense, the unit that if anyone tells you what is going to happen they are liars. No one knows. Like I did with the tweets before, i’ll put another one on here from someone that does a really good job creating conversations about our football team, but it confuses me to no end because if this is true… isn’t our offense in trouble then?
Nebraska had 106 starts returning along the OL in 2020, that is top 20 in the entire country. For 2021, Nebraska is returning 35 starts along the OL. If you want, compare that to Illinois who bring 123 starts back to their offensive line, and you see just how young we are there. Further, our only two draft picks were along the OL, meaning we lost talented guys there (watching Farniok at center for the Cowboys on Hard Knocks and playing well is tough to see, happy for him, but as a fan tough). It reminds me a bit of 2020 with the DL after we graduated the Davis twins and they were drafted. Are we going to say “we now look the part” even though our sack production goes down? I still like where we are, I just think we are extremely young, and that could be an issue. And it’s extremely difficult for me to sit here and say first year starters like Corcoran, Sichterman, and second year starters Piper and Benhart are better for us than senior guys like Tanner Farmer or Jerald Foster. They will be, but we are previewing 2021.
But let’s go out even further… you will have a brand new starter at every single WR spot as well as a brand new starter at RB. Are we even going to see Omar Manning this year who our guys have been practicing with all offseason? While those positions are the easiest in college football to play early because the strength element isn’t as paramount as say along the lines or linebacker… there is still a learning curve and the need to mesh with your team.
But the glue to hold this all together is Adrian Martinez. He basically needs to make everything right for Nebraska this year. There is no way we can go anywhere if he is his 2019/2020 self. We need Freshman All-American Martinez back. I understand some people are off his wagon, but I also completely understand Frost sticking with him. It’s tough when you see how good someone is, or is capable of being, to just pull the plug. Further, who are you putting in for him? While I love Masker, he’s just a different dynamic than Martinez. And Smothers/Haarberg aren’t ready, they are both freshmen. #2 has a lot of responsibility this year. This is the thinnest we’ve been at the quarterback spot since 2018, and #2 has gone down with an injury every year he’s been here (I suppose in 2020 not really an injury but didn’t start a couple games). We don’t have a Vedral as a backup sitting around if something happens, so that’s also something that could severely effect our 2021 season.
But just like I did with defense, there’s a stat that concerns me with offense. We have gone from 54th in 2018 in scoring offense, to 64th in 2019, and even reaching the double digits in 2020 at 101st. How in the heck does that happen in year 3 with a head coach that is thought of as an offensive guru? Probably doesn’t help when you lose your best WR each season. And it also doesn’t help when we have so many people transferring to mesh. With that said, our staff has done a really good job in the transfer portal getting big name guys in to help us like Stepp, Martin, Toure, and Falck. Even a guy like Vokolek will be leaned on heavily this year when healthy.
GAME BY GAME
(W) Illinois – According to PFI, this is our fourth easiest win on our schedule out the gates. If you can’t come motivated to win this, start looking for new coaching candidates. We won’t lose this game.
(W) Fordham – I don’t really know what you want me to say.
(W) Buffalo – We are pretty lucky they lost their coach and a bunch of guys to transfer. But I will still chalk this up as a win.
(L) Oklahoma – Our first loss of the season. We just aren’t quite ready yet and the Sooners are loaded.
(L) Michigan State – This is a tough one for me. But I think after our first adversity of the season in Norman, we struggle again with a Mel Tucker coached team.
(W) Northwestern – Conversely, I think we get right against the Wildcats at home in 2021. They lost their DC and we just have to figure out a way to win this year if we want to get to a bowl game.
(L) Michigan – I mean, I get it, they aren’t quite Michigan of old. But we aren’t exactly Nebraska of old. Maybe our last meeting is still in my mind.
(W) @ Minnesota – I think we get the monkey off our back against the Gophers this year, that was embarrassing last year. But PJ Fleck hates Nebraska, so he will have his team ready to go.
(W) Purdue – I’m hoping Frost finally has Brohm and Purdue figured out. I like our chances at home this year. We beat them last year but just like when we played the Gophers last year, they had all sorts of guys sitting out and were a shell of what they really are.
(L) Ohio State – Like Oklahoma, just not quite ready yet.
(L) @ Wisconsin – I just still don’t see us ready to compete here. They were beating us with “lesser recruits” and for the first time since Rivals was around they signed a better recruiting class than us.
(L) Iowa – I’m worried Iowa is going to be really good this year, and they absolutely hate us.
So there you have it, Vegas has the season win total at 6, and i’m predicting 6-6. In my opinion we have a really tough schedule and just a ton of unknowns such as a young line and all new skill position players that typically indicate some growing pains. You could probably flip flop my predictions for the Northwestern, Michigan State, and Minnesota games around as midseason a lot can change. But we need to be 2-1 at minimum against those guys which if history tells us anything, it’s a tall task, but one I think we are ready for.
But my 6-6 guess is more so because as a fan base I think that is what will keep us divided, no shot we are that lucky to make things easy on us. Nebraska football and its fans have been divided over the last decade, and that will keep things going in that regard. 6-6 will be touted as progress by many and reaching a bowl game. While others tell you that reaching a bowl game in year 4 should never be an accomplishment celebrated. It will keep the same arguments going for another 12 months, and we aren’t lucky enough to get those to stop. Then the bowl game will either take us to 7-6 or 6-7, furthering the argument.
But look at how we get to 6 wins. While i’m a complete moron for saying “we are starting 3-0”, you have to start 3-0 beating Illinois, Fordham, and Buffalo if you want any shot to get to .500. Now is where it gets tricky as you’re of course losing to Oklahoma, but Sparty, Wildcats, and the Gophers i’m really intrigued with. I just think depending on the situation can dictate a lot there. Like for example what if Martinez is out for one of the games i’m predicting us to win?
If you had a gun to my head where I can’t pick 6-6 as that’s a push, i’d go 7-5. I just think 5-7 is a really awful season when you break it down game by game and look at where we thought we’d be year 4. That means 5 straight seasons without a bowl, the only wins against a division opponent are Illinois and Purdue, and you continue to lose to Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Northwestern. That would be really bad. I don’t think we are really bad.
Nebraska has to be a top 50 team nationally in scoring offense. You just have to. When your head coach is thought of like he is with play calling, you can’t be 101st in scoring offense. But will our defense be better than in the 60s for scoring defense? That’s the one i’m really curious on. I do think our ceiling for that is in the 50s IF we are running the same offensive philosophy. With that said, what happens if we truly have gone bigger and going to be more north/south…. maybe we will try and chew up some clock? That could get our defense into the 40s or even 30s of scoring defense. I think they are that good.
What really worries me about my prediction for this season, is in 2019 we were supposed to be outstanding, and just weren’t. In 2020, we were one of only a handful of teams that kept their kids on campus, here, and working out. We had massive advantages compared to teams like Northwestern or Iowa who were saying things like this:
If ever we were to have an advantage, it was 2020. Remember, we are in trouble for doing workouts off campus in an NCAA investigation. Literally teams like Northwestern, Iowa, Minnesota who were sending kids home to work out at Anytime Fitness centers in a strip mall, they beat us. We we went 3-6. It’s just really tough for me to blindly think the ship is righted and everything is fine. Because if our S/C didn’t give us an advantage then, why will it give us one now? It’s why I really roll my eyes when I hear things like how elite we are in S/C and how much of an edge it gives us. Really? So if we were working with our staff all offseason in 2020, and 90% of the teams we played weren’t, you’re then telling me it’s the on the field coaches that are the problem. I’m not there, and don’t buy that.
But I do think overall as a team we are better, and that’s why i’m landing on the 6-6/7-5 train. We need to clean up turnovers, force more of them, limit penalties, be better on special teams, score more points, give up less points, etc. That’s a ton of things to clean up, but If we even do 2 or 3 of those things, we can get to where we want to be, in a bowl game.
IS SCOTT FROST ON THE HOT SEAT
I think it’s mild, not hot. Let’s be real… your athletic director was fired and you have one winning season out of five tries, and zero while at Nebraska. Anyone else would be gone right now. But with him having ties to the 90s we are really eating up some of the reasons/excuses it’s happening. Are some of them real? Sure. Are some of them made up? Absolutely. But at the end of the day, I think it would have to be catastrophic for Scott to be let go. 4-8 is catastrophic. I actually think he can keep his job at 5-7.
What gets worrisome is if we don’t get to a bowl this year, even though we get an easier schedule in 2022, you lose a ton on your defense and possibly your four year starter at QB. Gotta produce in 2021. And I think we will.
Illinois and Michigan State are the games that set the tone for the season. If Nebraska wins both of those (and they should, in my opinion) then they can start to gain some momentum. If Frost and company can’t get things rolling this year, I’m not sure when they would. With the Super Seniors and a 4th year starting QB they have to make this year count.
Right there with ya. Illinois needs to be a 14 point win and you can’t lose to Sparty no matter what FPI says. They are still implementing their new stuff and we should be able to handle them with our defense and a 4 year starter at QB coming back. I’m just hesitant based on the last three years.
Agreed 100%
I think we all just have to wait and see how the first game plays out. I am nerves that we will be disappointed again but there are a few things that do feel different.
Ever year I look at our seniors and the leadership. In the past we had good senior football players but not good leaders teaching the younger players. I think this year is better then others. I feel like all the players are doing and saying the right thing. Time will tell if they are just going through the motions. But it feels like the players are doing what are asked from them and doing what they need to do to get themselves better. The coach needs to push the right buttons to get the player motivated in doing what the coach is asking. I feel like that is better then the past years. Now here is the big question, can our coaches put the players in the best position to secede? We can have the best players in the world but you cant ask AM to throw 50 times, or use a receiver as a running back, or put 6 men in the box on 3rd and short. We have more talent then most schools, but are we developing that talent and using that talent to its strengths? Nebraska needs to start overachieving so it can start building for the future.
All fair. Goes back to the “Show me on the field” i was mentioning. We have been saying the right things and having the right players for years. At this point my eyes need to see it, not my ears hearing it.
I agree and that is why we will see if they are just going through the motions. In years past you could kinda see through the BS. I will say this, Martinez will have a bone head play or turnover. There will be way more penalties then the fans or coaches will like and the game will be close at halftime, But will the game go down to the end or will Nebraska pull away with a two score win? Hoping they can pull away and start building on that for the next game.
Agreed. Hoping we get shot out of a cannon and drub the Illini.
Great write-ups as always. Hate to beat a dead horse (why do we always say that right before we proceed to beat the dead horse anyway)– but it feels like we’ve been watching the same movie for about 20 years in a row now throughout 4 different coaching regimes. Solid talent combined with some poor coaching/schemes, questionable personnel management and player rotations, lack of discipline causing us to drown in penalties and turnovers, culture issues, etc. We haven’t been able to get out of our own way. I’m dying to see us string together some games where we come out and just don’t poop ourselves! Make the other team beat us. Please. God. My Wisconsin and Michigan friends are becoming unbearable.
That’s the million dollar question. We’ve tried the ex NFL coach, we’ve tried the coordinator, we’ve tried the coach with less resources and moved him here, now we are trying the Group of 5 coach. It has to work with Frost.
Top shelf analysis and is exactly what brings me in the door. Can’t find this type of breakdown anywhere else ( even behind paywalls). Excited to see what your site will grow into over the course of the next few years. Missed this stuff on the old board. Glad you took the next step. Big Red 38 -illini 13
I like that prediction… not sure it will be that lopsided but that would be a great start.
Outstanding write-up and analysis, don’t know how you find time to do it. Hope your forecast is right, think it was made using rose-tinted glasses tho (show me the money, er, evidence). I wish Scott success, but am glad our new A.D. has proven he is willing to take needed action, even when unpopular.
Ya, I think Trev will take an honest look at things. Big year in 2021.
Great stuff. Those tweets at the beginning are a perfect illustration why I think every single NU fan is on the fence this year or they have their head in the sand if not. We have heard all of this before and it was all talk. This Illinois game will really set the tone. A win will depend on how it looks. What will the offense/special teams/penalties/turnovers look like at the end of the game. If we play relatively clean, our offense looks good with all the new pieces and our special teams looks solid then it could be an interesting year in a good way for once. If we escape with a win that will not sit well. If we lose I think Frost is in trouble. All of that could change but the weight of that schedule becomes exponentially heavier in short order if we leave Champaign licking our wounds.
What is really crazy is that I could see any one of these scenarios playing out and I would never have expected it in year 4. I have hope that we have really turned some kind of corner because of some of the pieces that are now in place and Frost looks to be adjusting to the BIG but I really need to see it with my own eyes. I also am a skeptic because of the past three seasons. Really sets this game up as a big one imo.
Yep, we’ve heard it all before. And i’m not mad they say it, because everyone is undefeated right now. But at some point you gotta show me on the field. We haven’t done that in a long time.
What is the deal with Omar Manning. From all accounts he is physically ready to go but “other things” seem to be the problem. Do you have any insight on what his availability will be?
I really don’t know, but it’s growing frustrating hearing about how good he is and his reps taking away from others, then just not out there. Hoping we see a lot of him Saturday but who knows.
I can’t imagine 5-7 doing much to help our lagging 2022 recruiting class. So do you really risk bringing back Frost and having another losing season and a second consecutive poor recruiting class? We could recover from one (especially with transfers), but two straight would dig a huge hole for the next coach. I just think Frost and staff are done being able to sell recruits on hope. If we don’t produce this season, it’s extremely risky bringing him back for another shot.
I hear ya. I pull the rip cord if we don’t get to a bowl game personally, but I think Trev might give him another year. To your point, 2022 recruiting is not going well and so 2023 class will be more of the same. You back to back classes like that and it can tailspin in a hurry.
Would love to hear some opinions as to why Scott Frost “can” coach at UCF but is clueless at NU. What the hell happened?
I think a lot is the AAC didn’t play defense. I also think that cupboard wasn’t bare, people forget they won the back to back conference titles the seasons before they went 0-12 and Frost got there.