Hello everyone! This season is going exactly how I predicted it back in August on the message board:
Cincinnati – W
vs Akron – W
vs HCU – W
vs Michigan – L
vs Sparty – W
@Maryland – W
@Minnesota – L
vs Northwestern – W
vs USC – L
@UCLA – W
@Penn St – L
vs Cockeye – W
Michigan was going to be tough due to their talent, but I had us losing to Minnesota since Nebraska is the only team in 2024 and 2025 within the B1G that had to play a road game prior to a short week road game. Most teams had a bye prior, but at minimum they were playing at home. Us having to travel twice in a row, once on a short week was just a really bad spot for us.
While I had us losing that game in Minneapolis preseason, I didn’t think it would look as bad as it did. But my glass is half full makes me truly believe that wasn’t an indication of us as a team, more the spot we were in. While there were questions about our fire, motivation, if we took them too lightly, those could all be valid. But again, I just look at it as we were beat up, actually took two days off on a short week, and then had to quickly turnaround and get on a flight. They caught us at the right time on top of PJ Fleck having our number.
I also went across the river to place a season win total bet on the overs for Nebraska for the first time in over a decade. The goal was always bowl eligible heading into November for that to be possible. And let’s give Matt Rhule credit, this teams M-O used to be that we would lose one score games any chance we were given. While Nebraska lost a one score game to Michigan, they have one score WINS vs Cincy, Maryland, and now Northwestern. Years past Nebraska football would have found ways to lose those games. Especially how they played out with Sparty and Northwestern climbing back, behind against Maryland, etc.
Now is where things get worrisome for me. While I’ve had everything right to this point, there’s a couple predictions on there looking dicey that I could change (though I won’t). The California teams I still feel good about. USC is coming off a bye and just have too much firepower for us, so I do think we still lose to them. And UCLA I had as a win even before they fired their coach. You can’t lose to them two years in a row, especially with how the season has played out for the Bruins. You HAVE to go 1-1 these next two games heading into a bye.
Where things look a little different to me is the Penn State and Iowa games. Penn State I had as a sure loss, but look at them now… 3-4, a fired coach, they’ve lost 4 straight with their next games being @Ohio State, Indiana, @Sparty, and then we come to town off of a bye. They may throw in the towel at that point, who knows. Conversely, Iowa is looking to be a matchup nightmare for us. They are a better Minnesota that we just got crushed by.
All of the issues I was worried about heading into this season are problems, some more than I thought they would be. And then some things I thought would be a strength like the OL just aren’t. What I will say is Holgo is doing a good job scheming up our OL problems, he’s starting to move Raiola a bit.
I also stated that while DC White had us at 11th and 20th in the country in scoring defense, I predicted us to end up in the 30s this year and if that happened, we would get to 8-4. We sink down to the 40s/50s and 7-5 becomes a real possibility. Butler just doesn’t have the luxury of scheming up like Holgo with our inexperience, and you’ve seen that with some of these long runs that have popped. While Butler is not as good as White as a DC IMO, he’s doing better than I expected him to in his first role as a DC in over a decade.
Here’s the thing, we need to go 8-4. I understand 7-5 is considered progress but if you only win one more from here on out that means you went 2-4 down the stretch. That also means you lost to one of the teams that fired their coach for how bad things were going. Beat UCLA, then steal one against USC, Penn State, or Iowa and I like how this season played out. Don’t get off the wagon if things go off the rails against USC… I’m expecting that.
I’m going to write something on Wednesday about our NIL and in-state recruiting. Back in my HMax days, year 3 is when people really started getting mad at me about some Frost things I was sharing. I just am of the opinion that there is always things we can work on. Rhule is doing a hell of a job if you ask me, now let’s get over the hump and beat those Minnesotas.
Glad to hear from you man! I always miss your articles. I hope nothing is too doom and gloom about our NIL and in-state recruiting.
Nothing too crazy, just some things to have open conversation about.
As ALWAYS, you are spot on in your analysis. Look forward to your WEDNESDAY article.
Yeah USC looks like a playoff contender. Last time we played they ran all over us. Straight into the weakest part of the D. I am about 70-30 loss. Hoping for a miracle. UCLA and Penn state are doable. And Iowa I would see us losing again. However Holgo did a masterful job last year. Maybe it’s a toss up, just don’t want to go 0-4. GBR.
I hope they can get some quality and depth on the lines
Yeah Minnesota loss was a bit shocking to me, how bad it was. I overall think Rhule is doing well. Funny how after Minnesota loss, people start complaining about his podcast and how he cares more about his social media presence than coaching, blah blah. I’m like I think dude is just pouring every thing he can to get Nebraska name out there.
Why is Oline so bad? From what I can tell it’s been really poor tackle play, prochazka and gottula seem to be getting beat a ton, but sure there is other nuance.
DLine was super worried about coming in, but thought they had to have a plan. I don’t know if they were shortsighted or just couldn’t find anyone portal wise, but that seems like we are just so small there to be playing 3 man fronts, Ty and Nash were really perfect to have there last year, I feel like this D would look completely different and we may even win Michigan game if we had hogs up front to stuff the run.