Quarterback recruiting is a weird situation. I’ve often told people the one position I “understand” that has a lot of portal entries is quarterback. 99% of the teams out there employ a one QB system unlike RB, WR, OL, etc. where multiple guys play. And there’s a common narrative out there that says “If you have multiple QBs you are choosing from that means you don’t have one.”
This article from the athletic is nuts…
“We took the top 50 QBs from 2017-2020, took out the ones that switched positions which left us with 168 out of 200. Out of those 168 top 50 QBs those 4 years, 126 have transferred. That’s 75%.”
That’s insane. Even if you get a good QB he’s leaving? Why? The reason those numbers are so high is because A) you only play one guy and B) the squeeze and exploding offers are coming. But what does that mean?
Exploding offers inbound!
I first learned about these from my friend that works for USC. I tried to figure out just what Pete Carroll was doing to get such unreal classes so quickly. Paul Hackett was the coach before him and was a .500 coach, Carroll went .500 in his first season, so why all of a sudden could he get unreal classes? I got the fact that there are more 4 and 5 star players in a 50 mile radius of USC than there are in a 250 mile radius of Lincoln, but there had to be more to it.
My friend explained to me that Carroll started giving “exploding offers”. What he would do is he would tell kids “look, i’ve got 100 players at your spot wanting to come here. You’re in my A group, you have until (insert date) to accept or we are moving on.” It put the pressure on kids to commit and frankly once year 2, 3 and 4 came around for Carroll and he was winning national titles, kids wanted on board in a hurry.
That is what is going to start happening with QBs. As we talked about to enter this post, QB recruiting is so different. Unless you aren’t taking a QB in your class, you want/need to get your guy committed in the spring to help with the summer recruiting and solidify things for when fall comes around and it’s time to focus on the season. You are going to start seeing some of these teams putting the squeeze on kids to commit right now.
Here comes the squeeze to get what you want!
You are already seeing it from USC. USC invited Kaelin from Bellevue West out to visit which he is heading out to do despite being “110% committed” to Mizzou.
Not bagging on the kid, you take a trip to USC every day of the week if they ask you to. But keep in mind he doesn’t hold a USC offer yet. This is a game of chess being played by USC. I’m not saying they may not want Kaelin, but they are trying to force Raiola as well as Nebraska to make a move. They do not want Raiola coming back to Nebraska for the spring game.
They have him March 4th, he’s coming back to Lincoln next weekend, and then he will be at a USC recruiting event beginning of April. I feel at that time they will give him the “we need you now or we have to move on.” What will be interesting is I think USC would get his commitment if it was just going to who is the better team and developer of QBs right now, so will the squeeze tactic work?
Personally, I don’t think it will. First off, Raiolas always have something great to say after each visit of a school. But I can almost 100% assure you that Rhule will get Raiolas word that he is coming back for the spring game. “Don’t commit anywhere before we show you our spring game.” So when USC tries it, will he keep his word to Rhule? Or will he just commit to the Trojans since it’s all about where he wants to end up anyway?
And let’s be real, Mizzou wanted a commitment from Kaelin before Raiola possibly chose elsewhere and Rhule came calling. Kaelin is basically in a squeeze situation due to another player that he can’t control anything about their timeline.
Are we aware Rhule only has one offer out to a QB right now?
Not sure why I didn’t put this in my article from yesterday:
But according to 247 sports, Nebraska only has 7 offers out to 2024 QBs. And if the timelines are correct on those 7, all of them were offers from before this staff has came here. That means, there is no new QB on the radar for Rhule and his staff. And unless i’m missing something, Raiola is the only 2024 QB that has visited (someone correct me on that if i’m off). Kaelin might have, but Rhule is just trying to keep him at arms length. He can’t commit here at the moment, Raiola is the only QB with an offer he can commit to at this point from everything i’ve been told. That’s really telling. We are getting a high school QB in this class.
Listen, Rhule is a calculated dude. He ain’t putting all his eggs in one basket, not bringing other QB recruits in for our spring game, if he didn’t feel really good about where we are at with who we have an offer to. The vibe I get from talking to people close to the situation is that Raiola would probably commit to us right now, but they also think USC may feel the same way. We are giving the “why don’t you just check to be sure.”
My prediction is after next weekend, Rhule will give the “go make sure it’s us and not USC or Georgia or Oregon (whoever). If it’s still us after this next month, commit before the spring game and start us off with a bang for all these massive recruits we have coming in.” That’s what we will need to watch. Early April if we extend a QB offer or other QBs come in to look, time to worry. But until that happens… feel good about where we are Husker fans.
ShortSideOption Blog (exploding offer season)
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