First, my apologies for the radio silence. Work has gotten so hectic end of year, and high school football is finally over. I’m not super important, but some of you have asked. Hopefully will be able to pick things back up again here. I didn’t proofread so apologies in advance!
My thoughts on the season so far
If you remember in my preseason predictions, I had us going 6-6 which is still attainable. I had us beating Colorado and losing to Illinois, but also beating Sparty. For us to get to 6-6 we are going to have to beat Iowa. A tall task. I also stated in that preview that Vegas had the season win total at 6, and if you forced me to pick a side I would have taken the unders. I didn’t think we were quite ready yet. Here we are with the last game of the season and our fourth chance to make a bowl game. Can we get it done?
“Easiest schedule we’ve had”
I have been hearing this a lot from some fans, message board posters, etc. And that bothers me to no end. I’m not denying the fact that we’ve been pretty fortunate with who we’ve played, but devaluing the season where we have the most wins since 2016 seems odd to me. Just last year we were losing to teams that ended the season 1-11. We were losing to teams we paid over 1 million dollars to come play us. Just two years ago in 2021 I had to sit and watch people defend Coach Frost in year 4 stating “one score national champions” and “best 3-9 team ever”. But now in year 1 for a coach trying to build something we are going to nitpick how we got to 5 wins? Ridiculous to me.
What i’m liking so far
So let’s start with the obvious… what Tony White has done on the defensive side of the ball is nothing short of amazing, and it wasn’t by flipping the roster. Take a look at this defensive depth chart from the first game of the season, literally the only spot with a transfer starting was the JACK position, and Butler may have actually played first snap of that game anyway!
And if you look at the depth chart before the Wisconsin game and heading into this week against Iowa, it’s much of the same except true freshman Lenhardt has asserted himself and the JACK position has Gbayor put on there with Butler’s move to DE. I said for the longest time what concerned me about Coach Frost was the “wait til’ he gets his players” mantra for why things weren’t going well. I think Coach White has been the poster child for “good football coaches make football players better, not just theirs“.
I also believe that Rhule is creating a great foundation for what he’s trying to do moving forward. He wants to establish the run and quite frankly even though we have 2 OL starters out for the season (Corcoran and Piper) it almost seems to me that our OL is getting better.
What concerns me
So we can start with the obvious here… the offense has been rough to watch. And while I don’t like to go to micro on things, some of the playcalls have been baffling. A couple times against Wisconsin we would get a first down, and on 1st and 10 we would call a reverse, halfback pass, something crazy that would get stuffed and we would then be 2nd and 15 or something that we just struggled to convert. Let’s get into the offense a bit more later.
Special teams has also been a bit of a head scratcher, there’s been times where it’s been lights out. Then there’s been times where our punter and kicker just don’t look good at all. Kicker should be ok next year, but what concerns me is if we tell Buschini it’s time to go, we are relying on a true freshman punter to be ready to go. We need to get that factory back up and running where a few walk-ons come in that are getting ready while the starter is here, then they insert themselves as a RS Sophomore or junior and are ready to go.
New OC? Not so fast, let’s dive deeper into the offense
So a lot of people are talking about the Satterfield “buddy hire” and if Rhule would make a change there. I’m here to tell you that I don’t believe Rhule would do that after year 1 even with the next things i’m going to tell you. I think what is tough to gauge this offense on is the fact that we are on our third string QB, Betts leaves the team, IGC and Washington blow their knees, Kemp is missing an MCL, 2 starting OL down, top 3 RBs gone, it’s actually one of the crazier things i’ve seen. Be honest with yourself, with that much going wrong and missing, how can we actually judge what we are trying to be on offense?
What I am concerned about part 2
So, I am concerned a bit about our offense, but I’m not judging it right now based on what I just laid out in the previous paragraph. What does concern me is the clock management against Wisconsin.
All of the people sitting there saying we should have played for the win and not the tie really bother me. Let’s not act like against Minnesota, Maryland, etc., we weren’t bitching that we didn’t just get the fieldgoal. So the superpower of hindsight is helping you all. But, I will say we could have done better with the clock to give us more opportunity. We had 3 timeouts with roughly 90 seconds left. Now, I understand that Rhule and Satterfield basically only had one week of starters practice with Purdy, so they didn’t know what they had. But you could have lined up quicker, ran some speed option or rollouts with a pass or scramble option to “try and score a touchdown” while keeping it controlled and not just throwing the ball. As it stood, Rhule just let it wind down and gave us 2-3 plays to try and get it done. We ended up kicking a fieldgoal on second down to send it to overtime.
I won’t get overly worked up, I think the previous times where we didn’t even get to kick a FG coupled with a third string QB is what really spooked our coaches.
RB position intrigues me when it comes to who plays
So if any of you have read my stuff, I talked about how there was a reason that Johnson and Ives weren’t getting any talk about them in the spring and fall camp. The fact is, they just weren’t even as close to as good as the guys in front of them. Fast forward to now and you have tons of people saying how Emmett Johnson has been a pleasant surprise and we need to get him the ball more. It got me thinking…
So in the spring we were saying how awesome Ervin Jr, Johnson, Grant, and Allen are. We had 4 guys that everyone thought were awesome. We lose Allen to the portal but we fortunately have a 3-man stable still there. And then you look at our history, Abdullah comes in as the “worst rated” of the 3 (with Green and Heard) but beats them out. Ozigbo is a 2 star we stole from Iowa State but ends up running everywhere in 2018.
The point i’m making is I don’t think RB is a very tough position to recruit. Do you want a guy like a Burkhead and other highly ranked guys? Of course. But even as far back as Roy Helu who was the lowest 3 star you could be on Rivals, they balled out for us. I think no matter who we have at RB we will be fine, it’s the things around them that make them. Losing Lacy is tough, but we will be fine. Take a look at our best RB from the last years:
2009 – Helu
2010 – Heard
2011 – AGreen
2012 – ICross
2013 – TNewby
2014 – MWilbon
2015 – DOzigbo
2016 – TBryant
2017 – JBradley
2018 – MWashington, GBell
2019 – RJohnson, DMills
2020 – SMorrison
2021 – GErvin
2022 – EJohnson
My point is… save 2020 and 2017, every single year you are getting someone that contributes at the FBS level and is very good.
Chubba
So here’s the deal, we are on our 3rd QB of the year, but we looked the most proficient offensively that I think i’ve seen us all year against a Power 5 football team. And Purdy is the kind of running QB I like as opposed to Sims and Haarberg. What I mean by that is Sims and HH have designed runs for them because they need a box stacked against them to make the throwing lanes/reads that much clearer. Even then the accuracy and decision making can be suspect. Purdy who is smaller and maybe not as powerful as those two, has a much better arm and ability to read the defense. And while we won’t do designed runs nearly as often with him, when things are covered he can take off and run like he did on this called pass play:
As we talked about before the season, when we relied on called run plays for Sims and Haarberg to get first downs to insert another guy into the running game for us, I knew we were in trouble. However, Purdy gives you enough of a threat to throw the ball that defenses have to remain honest and can’t creep up on you, which in turn creates better running lanes for people other than the QB.
So what to do with the portal?
Alright, let me just give you perfect scenario here… In a perfect world, Chubba somehow figures out a way to beat Iowa and get us bowl eligible. Be honest with ourselves, his stat line isn’t going to be stellar as the Iowa defense is very good. But if he looks like he did against Wisconsin that will at least give our coaches some confidence that we have something to work with heading into 2024.
In that scenario of us getting to a bowl game (and what if we won the bowl and ended 7-6) then I believe Rhule would tell HH and Sims that Purdy is going to start the spring with the 1s. That is best case scenario in my opinion.
Here’s scary scenario… Purdy struggles against Iowa, and now you are left with 3 scholarship QBs for 2024 that all didn’t look great much of the time and a true freshman that won’t quite be ready yet for your roster this coming year. It is in that scenario that I think Rhule and Satterfield would tell each QB that they are hitting the transfer portal hard to find a starter for next year and it’s an open competition between all of them as well.
Something that Husker fans are really struggling to grasp is the fact that if you go out and get a Casey Thompson, Jeff Sims, or Adrian Martinez caliber QB to transfer in, you are guaranteeing them a starting spot at your school. People don’t realize that Rhule DID NOT chase Thompson off. But CT said he needed to know he was the starter, Rhule said he has only seen Sims in person so Sims was #1 for now, and Thompson went to where he was guaranteed a starting spot at Florida Atlantic. So if you go get someone proven, that’s what’s happening.
Purdy and Sims graduate in December, so if you go that route I believe both of them would take off. I think Sims is gone no matter what next year. If you go proven starter route, I would also nearly guarantee that Purdy is going to be gone too. Leaving you with Haarberg, Kaelin, and whoever you bring in. A big risk for someone you’ve never coached.
The other portal option is to go get someone that is not quite established yet like we did with Purdy, someone who may be a backup somewhere with only 1 or 2 starts under his belt to come in and compete with Kaelin for the starting spot when Purdy leaves or the transfer. Maybe a guy like Zane Flores at Oklahoma State or Lincoln Klienholz at Ohio State. That’s my favorite scenario, get one of those guys, bring Purdy back (if he looks decent against Iowa), have Kaelin come in, and then you have Haarberg in a Blake Bell role of goalline/wildcat QB and H-back and emergency QB if needed.
There are some intriguing names out there though, I mentioned this guy from FCS Holy Cross:
In like opponents to Nebraska, he played Buffalo in 2022 where he was 13/21 for 238 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs with 146 yards rushing. But again, many programs are going to be throwing a big NIL package at him and guaranteeing a starting job.
Another interesting name is Noah Walters, who was Malachi Coleman’s QB at Lincoln East and Ryan Held plucked him down to North Alabama. Walters was named Freshman of the Year in his conference by Phil Steele:
Good options, but again, will they need a guarantee? When it comes to this QB portal, I think a lot hinges on what Purdy looks like Friday. Here’s hoping we get a victory and a bowl-berth to give some clarity to our staff. One things for sure, we need some more competition in that room and our coaches would love 4 scholarship QBs not just 3. What kind of competition is the question though. Competition for who has the reigns after 2024? Or competition FOR the 2024 season?
Hot Takes
It’s silly season, so don’t let losers trying to make a name for themselves like me influence your stability with rumors. 100% sure Rhule is back here next season (don’t worry about A&M, hell Ryan Day is being linked to it lol) and 75% sure DC White is back next season.
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Once again an assessment made with reason and clarity. Thanks for this enlightening insight. The bozos at HM are totally out of their collective minds. I have trouble just reading some of the crap that goes on there. I think your assessment of the Qb and running backs is spot on. I wish you would have had the chance of Tony White coming back at closer to 98% but that’s just me. But with Ty Robinson coming back, don’t you think that’s an indication that Coach White is coming back ? (I’m being hopeful here of course …. Reaching for any assurance I can get.) love your post and keep that insight coming.
I don’t believe White has told any players what he’s doing yet. I fully expect White to interview at a place or two, but in the end it won’t be the right fit or he won’t quite be ready yet. I don’t think Robinson coming back is an indication of White coming back, unfortunately.
I do think he gives Rhule one more year though. Our defense could be just as good next year.
Thanks SSO! I was just thinking about how big Friday is for that whole quarterback situation. That’s a fascinating topic to me. Winning would be like getting nearly an entire “spring practice” and another real live football game against a decent team to evaluate Purdy (where I assume he would’ve played reasonably well against a good defense to get us bowl eligible).
If you’re thinking of topics in the offseason, I’d love to hear your thoughts on the close, late-game struggles. I mean, what in the world? Some (most?) of the numbers I’ve seen seem impossible. Does it simply boil down to a lack of big-time playmakers? Over-reliance on runners who play quarterback rather than quarterbacks who can run (coincidence that we finally at least have a game-tying drive at the buzzer with Chubba on Saturday)? Terrible coaching? Culture? Too much pressure? Most probably a combination of all of the above?
It’s about time you came back to us! It’s good to be able to get your insight again! I think Purdy has the chance to become a solid quarterback for us. The way I see it playing out is, Purdy for Iowa and a bowl game, and all of next year. Raiola ends up transferring over for 2025, and the fan base has a collective heart attack! What I have enjoyed about this year is the little we hear about the O-Line, I do think I see some progress being made there. I wouldn’t say “gelling” yet, as Satt hasn’t given them an identity yet as to what kind of run team we’re going to be. But Pass-Pro has been sufficient at the least! Hell, I’m even rootin for Benhart to come back for another year! Side note on Satt, some of his plays have been head scratchers, but if they would have worked when called, we’d be calling him a genius. The toss back from Grant to Purdy would have won us the game, but we don’t want to talk about that…
Great write up like always. I agree about the QB’s, I think ideally Purdy shows enough to be in contention to be next years starter but they should also look at a guy like Kienholtz in the portal. But if they can get a homerun guy like Sluka I think they need to take him. I watched Kaelin this year but I have to say I was not impressed. Just by going off the eye test, Bell West’s offense as a whole didnt look very good this year, I would almost pick Rezac over him.
Yeah I think Rhule is still the right guy long term here. Have to say though the past 3 games have been unbelievably frustrating to watch. I can write off Maryland and Mich St to awful QB play. Purdy at least didn’t turn the ball over vs Wiscy, but for whatever reason couldn’t do anything after the 1st few drives.
Y1 regardless of coach I don’t get to get too hot or cold either way. But I do think the next 1-2 years if he doesn’t figure out something on the QB and OC side of.things that works, or criticism will be justified.
One thing that I’ve been frustrated with, and I know it’s easier to be a armchair coordinator than real life, is the lack of run at times. I know that it’s easier said than done, especially when you’re having difficulty running the ball. But there’s been games where we actually seemed to be running it well, and we’d just go past happy again.
Rhule and Satterfield sed to be playing up the physical run and fullback talk before the season. I hear lots of peop claiming Satterfield is a pass happy coach and he won’t change his stripes. I don’t know enough to know his past MO, but man I feel like there have been some games where we’ve bailed on it when it was working…
Seriously, NU intercepts with 40 secs left and still loses in regulation. What did I talk about the other day. SITUATIONAL FOOTBALL. Offense gets the ball and Purdy turns it back over with a HORRIBLE Int. Then the defense gives up a 20 yard running play. If they had given up just a few yards on that play, more than likely it ends up in overtime. This was the most frustrating season in the last 20 years for me. 5-3 followed by losses to 4 beatable teams and no bowl game. Seriously, I would get rid of the Special Teams coach and hire Bill Busch if he is interested. I know the OC was dealt a bad hand but some of the play calling was atrocious. I guess I give him a 1st year mulligan. They better find 2 guys who can play major college football at QB. Purdy may be ok as a backup but he isn’t a P5 starter.
Statistics show this was the weakest schedule since 2003 (that was as far as I could go back based on data from TeamRankings.com). After looking back at things, honestly if NU just had average QB play they probably end up 8-4 or 9-3. The biggest blunder Rhule made was thinking he could retool a turnover machine from Georgia Tech who ended up being an even bigger turnover machine at NU. Although Purdy looked like a D1 QB at times the past three weeks, he still made critical mistakes in 2 out of those 3 games. Like I said above he probably is good enough to be a backup in D1 but not a starter.
Year SOS
2023 65
2004 61
2022 57
2013 53
2015 50
2016 47
2018 41
2014 41
2017 40
2005 40
2011 32
2003 30
2010 28
2019 27
2008 25
2007 23
2012 21
2006 15
2021 6
2009 5